“Normally, an epidemic lasts about three years, and we have three years,” Bue told 9news.com.au, when predicting how we might be affected by the virus in 2023.
“This gives hope that the virus is coming up with clever ways to avoid our immune system,” Booy said.
“It may be that we are coming to the end of this epidemic (but) that does not mean that a new epidemic is not possible.”
With no new version of concern for some time, Bue said future waves of the epidemic, like the current fourth wave, are likely to be less severe.
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The virus has killed more than 15,300 Australians, according to government figures.
Although this epidemic may be nearing an end, Booy warned that “the possibility of a new epidemic is always increasing”.
Buoy said the spread of the virus — from bats or other mammals and animals — is likely to cause it, posing new challenges for virologists and health officials.
Bats may be major carriers and transmitters in the future, the study said.
Although there is still no conclusive evidence on how the coronavirus started, two recent studies have identified the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, China as the most likely center of transmission of COVID-19 between humans.
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Other theories include a laboratory leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a biotech facility located in the city where the virus was first discovered.
Although China allowed some World Health Organization scientists to visit Wuhan in 2021, they were not given full access to potentially important information.
Identifying the origins of COVID-19 is important to help prevent future outbreaks.
Bue said officials had “learned a great deal” about containing the epidemic, but there were clear areas that needed more vigilance.
He gave good grades for disease surveillance, gene sequencing of viruses, international cooperation and understanding of how to control epidemics through isolation, masks, ventilation, social distancing, vaccines and antivirals.
“But have we learned enough? No,” Bue said.
The most pressing issue was equity around the distribution of vaccines.
About 97 percent of Australians were given two doses, and 72.4 percent received three jabs, with the Third World lagging dangerously behind.
Africa has the lowest vaccination rate of any continent, with 33.4 percent of the population having received at least one dose of the vaccine.
“We need to better manage vaccine hesitancy,” Booy said, “referring to the group of people who are overwhelmed by conspiracy theories. Those who think the vaccine is unnecessary because the virus is a hoax.”
These fringe groups, he said, actually constituted only 5 percent of the population.
“But they make enough noise to seem like a lot.”
Following rare displays of public protest, President Xi Jinping lifted restrictions that had confined millions to their homes and crushed economic growth.